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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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