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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – with three in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the next day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would disband the assembly and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”