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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.